The latest quarterly report from the UCLA Anderson Forecast says that the California economic recovery is expected to lag the nation in 2010 but will ramp up in 2011 and beyond.
From the report:
UCLA Anderson Senior Economist Jerry Nickelsburg says the state “will grow slower than the U.S. and a slow recovery in jobs will leave unemployment at 12.1% for the year. The latter part of our forecast (through 2012) calls for health care, professional and business services, exports, construction and technology-related manufacturing sectors to generate a bit more robust growth in California.” However, Nickelsburg notes, though the state will grow more rapidly in the following two years, job creation will not be fast enough to push the unemployment rate below double digits until 2012. “Unlike other deep recessions, the rapidity of the recovery, at least on the unemployment front, will be muted,” Nickelsburg writes.
The forecast for the next three years is slightly weaker than suggested in the March report. Slow growth in 2010 is expected as government and construction continue to restructure and a reticent consumer nationwide does not boost imports to levels that would ignite the logistics industry. Specific to the construction sector, Nickelsburg describes a divided state, as coastal California recovers while inland California, devastated by the collapse of the real estate market continues to languish.